Question :You are a contestant on a game show where you have an pportunity to win a fabulous pedigreed horse. The horse is behind one of three doors. Behind the other two doors are cheap rocking horses .
If you pick the correct door,you win and get to keep the real horse. First,you select one of the doors. But before you look behind the door,the host opens one of the other doors and reveals a rocking horse.The host then offers to let you keep your selection or switch to the unopened door.
What do you think is best for you to do now - open the current door you have already selected,switch and open the other unopened door,or it does not matter which you do ?
Answer : :
Select a door -- win a horse: There is a 1/3 chance of selecting the real horse, which means you have a (greater) 2/3 chance of having first picked a door with a rocking horse. Once the door with the other rocking horse is identified, then you have a higher likelihood that the remaining unopened door will have the real horse .